WHAT'S LEFT ON THE SCHEDULE?

A few things prompted this post.  One, I didn't want to talk about how UConn sort of got screwed last night, and I DEFINITELY didn't want to talk about the great hyperbole-fest that took place in Chapel Hill, NC last night.  Two, I saw a link to an article by Michigan State blog The Only Colors, which I've linked to before, that talks about what they see as the most important statistic in college basketball.  Three, the SEC regular season is starting to sort of draw to a close, and I sort of freaked out when I saw who UK and VU have left to play.

The Only Colors says

"...defensive effective field goal percentage is the most important basketball statistic in determining team-level success.  It has the greatest statistical weighting relative to overall defensive efficiency, and it's more easily interpretable than offensive effective field goal percentage.  Simply put, it tells you, 'Does this team consistently force it's opponents to take difficult shots?'  Teams for which the answer to that question is 'Yes' are going to have a pretty decided advantage whenever they take the court."

Accepting that as true, let's take a quick look at Kentucky and Vandy's numbers for defensive effective field goal percentage and rankings.  First, Kentucky's defensive efficiency rank nationally, according to KenPom, is 20 at 43.7%.  Ahead of the Cats are Kansas and Duke, but also a bunch of schools that have no chance of making it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament like St. Louis and Coastal Carolina.  Here's how the Cats have done since conference play started:

College Basketball

On average, the Cats are holding teams under 50% eFG, which is pretty good. What's really funny is that the teams who have shot efficiently against the Cats did not actually appear to be in those games, with the possible exceptions of Georgia and the pesky Auburn Tigers. South Carolina's eFG was terrible, and the Cats lost that game. I'd say the difference there was actually that South Carolina did more with its scoring opportunities than Kentucky did. That, and probably rebounding.

Moving on to Vanderbilt, the Dores are 103rd in the country in defensive effective field goal percentage at 47.2%. That's still better than most teams, but it might be the one thing that indicates a ceiling on the Dores' potential this year.

NCAA Basketball

I think this one's a little weird. It definitely tells us why Vandy beat Tennessee and lost to UGA, but the fact that they defended MSU as well as they did and almost lost is interesting. The Florida game is really interesting, too, as you'd think a team shooting the ball that well can't possibly lose. It helped that the Dores shot two percentage points higher in that game, I suppose.

Looking at the data we have, I'm not sold on D eFG% as being the single most important statistic, but I'll keep an eye on it to see how the rest of the season shakes out. Speaking of which, here's what's left on the schedule for UK and Vandy:

VANDERBILT

Sat, Feb 13 1:30 PM SEC Network, CSN-DC+, CA			vs		LSU	216	-	Memorial Gymnasium	Yes		Pregame
Thu, Feb 18 7:00 PM ESPN U			@		Mississippi	37	25	Smith Coliseum	Yes		Pregame
Sat, Feb 20 6:00 PM ESPN			vs		Kentucky	5	3	Memorial Gymnasium	Yes		Pregame
Thu, Feb 25 7:00 PM ESPN U			vs		Georgia	95	-	Memorial Gymnasium	Yes		Pregame
Sat, Feb 27 12:30 PM SEC Network			@		Arkansas	113	-	Bud Walton Arena	Yes		Pregame
Tue, Mar 02 7:00 PM ESPN			@		Florida	56	18	O'Connell Center	Yes		Pregame
Sat, Mar 06 2:00 PM ESPN 2 or ESPN360.com			vs		South Carolina	64	-	Memorial Gymnasium	Yes		Pregame

Just looking at it, Vandy should easily beat LSU, but Ole Miss is not an easy out.  They luckily have Kentucky at home, but that's not a gimmie as KenPom says the Dores' chance of victory is 62%.  Georgia at home should be easier than Georgia away.  Arkansas is not good, but they do play better at home and are somehow leading the SEC West right now.  At Florida, also hard.  South Carolina doesn't have Vandy's number like they have Kentucky's, so I think the Dores will finish the regular season on a high note.  Overall, I think the Dores get through the last seven games with maybe two losses, which should keep them in the driver's seat for a bye in the SEC Tournament.  Do better, and it's a lock.

KENTUCKY

Sat, Feb 13 9:00 PM ESPN			vs		Tennessee	20	12	Rupp Arena	Yes		Pregame
Tue, Feb 16 9:00 PM ESPN			@		MSST	71	23	Humphrey Coliseum	Yes		Pregame
Sat, Feb 20 6:00 PM ESPN			@		Vanderbilt	11	22	Memorial Gymnasium	Yes		Pregame
Thu, Feb 25 9:00 PM ESPN or ESPN 2			vs		South Carolina	64	-	Rupp Arena	Yes		Pregame
Sat, Feb 27 12:00 PM CBS			@		Tennessee	20	12	Thompson-Boling Arena	Yes		Pregame
Wed, Mar 03 8:00 PM SEC Network			@		Georgia	95	-	Stegeman Coliseum	Yes		Pregame
Sun, Mar 07 12:00 PM CBS			vs		Florida	56	18	Rupp Arena	Yes		Pregame

I think UT is a paper tiger these days.  However, Kentucky still has to play them twice, and at TBA might not be an assured W.  At MSU won't be easy either, but then again, I think we might actually try a game plan that doesn't include going right at Jarvis Varnado the whole time, so a win is possible.  At Vandy, tough game for sure.  South Carolina should expect to get destroyed because there's no way the Cats play that bad against the same team twice.  At Georgia is not going to be easy, but I think the Cats will have a good closing against Florida.  Ideally, I see the Cats making it through these games unscathed, but this is clearly the hardest part of Kentucky's conference schedule.  There might be two losses in there (KenPom agrees) and I think the most likely one is Vandy.  I do not see the Cats losing in Knoxville, but Starkville and Athens (gasp) are some possibilities.

Let's keep our fingers crossed, basketball fans.